DigitalKoans

The Wall Street Journal has run an article about the growing problem of Houston's lack of zoning ("Houston's Twilight Zone: Projects Rise in Odd Spots").

What got the newspaper's and the Mayor's attention is a plan to build a 23-story condominium in a high-end neighborhood not far from Rice University. Understandably, the influential residents of this area are not thrilled by the prospect of an enormous tower looming over their increasingly pricey homes.

Real estate values in the "Inner Loop" (an inner city area bounded by the 610 highway) have skyrocketed in the last 15 years, and property taxes have followed the sharp upward curve. Desirable older neighborhoods with single-story houses built in the 1950s and 1960s have been ravaged by developers, who have torn down these houses to build large multiple-story mansions in the $800,000 to well over $1 million range. Builders have been undeterred as the prices of these single-story houses have doubled (or more) to roughly the $300,000-$400,000 range. Poor neighborhoods close to downtown have been decimated as builders have erected one high-end condo or apartment complex after another. This trend has increasing driven those looking for affordable housing outside the Loop, the further the cheaper (good values can be found there, and they keep Houston's overall housing costs fairly low). But Houston is a big sprawling city (about 600 square miles), and those fleeing inner city face long commutes on packed highways that are under perpetual construction in a futile attempt to keep up with the demand for new lanes.

Zoning issues are not new in Houston, but what is new is the trend for developers to want to erect large, expensive condominium complexes in the midst of high-end neighborhoods (the project mentioned in the article is not the only one in the works), and that's got the natives riled in those neighborhoods.

According to the 2007 Annual Urban Mobility Report by the Texas Transportation Institute, Houston ranked seventh in the nation in traffic congestion in 2005, with drivers stuck in traffic jams 56 hours per year—the equivalent of seven eight-hour workdays. That’s up from 45 hours per year in 2000.

After the New Orleans Hurricane Katrina disaster, I'm sure that awareness about the possibility of long-lasting devastation from U.S. hurricanes increased significantly. After all, who could have imagined that the U.S. response to such a catastrophe would be so pathetic?

About a month after Katrina, Houston was threatened by Hurricane Rita, and the panic was unbelievable as millions tried to flee, creating one of the most massive traffic jams in U.S. history, with cars stranded by the thousands as they ran out of gas idling in gridlock and local service stations were closed or dry as a bone. Again, officials were slow to act, and in-town trips that would normally take about 15 minutes took as long as 12 hours.

Why the panic? To some degree, I'm sure that it was fueled by media images of Hurricane Katrina; however, it was also driven by the potential devastation that a Category 4 or 5 hurricane would cause in Houston.

For those of you who don't have the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale memorized, here's what the National Weather Service says about Category 4 and 5 hurricanes (Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane):

Category Four Hurricane:

Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). . . .

Category Five Hurricane:

Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

Here's a map showing the greater Houston and Galveston areas' evacuation zones.

Here's a PDF file that shows this in more detail.

Here's an explanation of the zones (zone C is the zone closest to Houston):

For example, those in Evacuation Zone C should plan to evacuate for a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Those in Evacuation Zone B should plan to evacuate for a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane. Those in Evacuation Zone A should plan to evacuate for all hurricanes.

To understand the reason why there are such large-scale evacuation plans, read this article, which discusses how severe hurricane damage could cost up to $50 billion: "Models Show 'Massive Devastation' in Houston."

That's why Houston worries about hurricanes, especially Category 4 or 5 ones.

Houston was on the "dirty side" of Tropical Storm Erin, and some parts of town got over 8 inches of rain. My street was like a river, surging at times with water pouring over the sidewalk (you really start to worry when it's three-fourths of the way to the front door).

Here are some flood photos from Houston Chronicle readers

Hurricane Dean is next on the worry list. Below are the August hurricane category 3-5 tracks from NOAA since 1851, as complied by Eric Berger.

Ah, August. That’s when the hurricane season gets serious, and the Gulf waters this year are unusually hot.

So, a reminder about Digital Scholarship’s two hosts. The .com host is here in Houston. The .org host is in Dallas. Dallas is considerably more inland than Houston, which is only about 50 miles from the coast. Consequently, unless things are really bad, the Dallas host is likely to remain up should Houston be hit with a hurricane or tropical storm. Fingers crossed.

With an average of 51 inches of rain a year (compared to a national average of 37 inches) and a comfort index of 24 out of 100 (measures humidity, higher is better, and the US average is 44), and an average July high of 94, few people move to Houston because it has a balmy climate. After a year or so, some who do move here decide that they can’t stand the heat and humidity and leave.

I’ve never minded the Houston weather much, but this year has been exceptionally rainy, and the last couple of months there has been no need to look at the daily forecast—the forecast is rain. Rain here usually means a torrential downpour, although the long, slow drizzle is not unknown. Houstonians think of rain as those in more northerly climates think of snow. That’s because rain is associated with street flooding (and sometimes house flooding from overfull bayous), low highway exit ramps becoming mini-lakes, poor visibility, and massive highway traffic jams that spill over into adjoining surface streets creating citywide gridlock.

You adjust to the inconvenience of rain, but this year, more than once, it’s become almost pitch black in the morning or afternoon hours because the overcast is so heavy, and that’s a bit depressing.

But, I guess we should be thankful that the hurricane season has been very quiet so far (no one wants another Tropical Storm Allison or Hurricane Rita nightmare).

Massive Traffic Jam on I-45 as Houston Residents Flee Hurricane Rita

Source: AmyEmilia, This photo is licensed under an Attribution-NonCommercial 2.0 License.

After the evacuation of 2 1/2 million people from the Houston/Galveston area amid massive traffic jams in all directions, severe gas shortages before gas stations went completely dry (there is no gas between here and Dallas), stranded motorists along all major highways, hotels being full as far away as Little Rock and Abilene (forget Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio), Houston was spared the worst of Hurricane Rita as the eye took a last minute turn northeast to the Louisiana border.

It took me 2 1/2 hours to go 10 miles West along alt 90, barely moving and consuming a quarter tank of gas before I turned back (it took 15 minutes to return). (Lesson learned: smaller evacuation routes cross bigger ones that, when jammed, overflow so much traffic to the smaller routes that they becomes an impassable barrier, plus officials pay no attention to smaller routes.) Few of the roughly 2 1/2 million people left were on the city streets, and virtually all stores and gas stations were closed and boarded up: a ghost town. After a night of howling winds, but relatively little rain, over 600,000 people have no power, and it may take weeks to restore service (the temperature here before Rita was in the upper 90s). So, no gas, no open stores, no power for many, but residents are thankful, because the scenario of a worst case Category 5 strike included large parts of the coastal region and the Ship Channel being under water, and the rest being hit by 100+ mph winds and over 20 inches of rain (Houston has many bayous and floods easily).

Here are selected links:

• "Hurricane Rita"
• "Models Show ‘Massive Devastation in Houston’"
• Potential Flooding in Category 5 Hurricane by Zip code (large graphic; 610 loop is the core of the city)
• "Mayor White Blasts State’s Handling of Gasoline"
• "Looking for Gasoline? Good Luck"
• "Fear, Kindness Looms around Those Stuck on Interstates"
• "Standed on Empty"
• "State Officials Set Schedule for Evacuee Return"
• "And So the Rush Home Begins"
• "State Sets Staggered Schedule for Return of Rita Evacuees"
• "Outages Could Linger for Weeks"
• "Not All Regret Choice to Flee"
• "Welcome Home"
• Lessons Come at High Cost: 107 Lives
• "Hurricane Season Only Half Over"
• Hurricane Rita Wiki

Houston is likely to be struck by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. DigitalKoan and SEPW updates are likely to be erratic for some unknown period of time.