Richard Poynder has released Open Access: Could Defeat Be Snatched from the Jaws of Victory?.
Here's an excerpt:
I have in this document suggested that the goal of achieving universal open access looks today as though it may have been unrealistic. I have suggested that the research community failed to appreciate the costs of online publishing, and I have suggested that we all failed to anticipate the likely outcome of creating a largely unregulated open network. I have also suggested that OA advocates failed to anticipate the unintended consequences of their advocacy. They likewise failed to appreciate that changes in the geopolitical situation could make the aspirations outlined in BOAI moot. And I have questioned whether these aspirations are in any case realisable in the neoliberal environment of the Global North. I have also suggested that were China to offer an alternative route to open access it is unlikely it would lead to a better outcome. And I have noted that there is a desire in the Global South to develop what I referred to as "a third way" but we cannot know how successful that might be. I have also suggested that there must be some doubt as to whether a fair and equitable global system of scholarly communication is even possible in today’s political environment. Finally, I have raised the possibility that, for a number of reasons, we may in any case see a pushback against open access.
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